Early warning and mass evacuation in coastal cities.
Abstract: The FP7 Theseus research project (2009‚ 2013) aims to develop and assess innovative technologies and methodologies for coastal protection against erosion, flooding and environmental damages. While protection structures may help to reduce the level of hazard and the expected degree of loss, some danger of technical failures or human errors will always remain. For extreme events, the implementation of non-structural measures as early warning systems and management practices is required to ensure the protection of population. During Theseus, a methodology for helping the local authorities to prepare an action plan in case of coastal flooding was developed and tested on the estuary of Gironde in France. The methodology builds over the return of experience from past events and tries to clearly identify all the stages of an evacuation and the thinking process that can lead to a robust evacuation plan. It relies on a conceptual framework ‚ SADT ‚ which helps to understand how data should be processed from its collection to its use in the plan. The scenarios were calculated for current and future conditions of the XXIst century, taking into account the effects of climate change. The methodology is supported by the OSIRIS software, prototyped during the FP5 eponymous project and later distributed by CETMEF and the French basin authorities of Loire and Meuse. The methodology for the preparation of evacuation plans was applied on a pilot city of Theseus, Bordeaux on the estuary of Gironde (France), and the software used to calculate evacuation times was tried out on Cesenatico near the Adriatic coast (Italy). This comparison verified the replicability of methodological guidelines in two different European contexts. The cultural and organizational differences and the different number of people involved underlined strong questions to be addressed when applying them. In order to assess the efficiency of an evacuation strategy and to compute the number of people successfully evacuated over time, a macroscopic model (not representing each individual vehicle but only flows of vehicles in congestion points) for the simulation of traffic congestion was used, based on the work of the University of Twente, Rijkswaterstaat and INFRAM. This model will be integrated in the Theseus decision support system for helping coastal managers to select their strategy for . [Copyright &y& Elsevier]/nCopyright of Coastal Engineering is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
This comparison verified the replicability of methodological guidelines in two different European contexts. The cultural and organizational differences and the different number of people involved underlined strong questions to be addressed when applying them. In order to assess the efficiency of an evacuation strategy and to compute the number of people successfully evacuated over time, a macroscopic model (not representing each individual vehicle but only flows of vehicles in congestion points) for the simulation of traffic congestion was used
Modeling and testing,
efficiency and applicability of mass evacuation
a methodology for helping the local authorities to prepare an action plan in case of coastal flooding was developed and tested on the estuary of Gironde in France.The methodology builds over the return of experience frompast events and tries to clearly identify all the stages of an evacuation and the thinking process that can lead to a robust evacuation plan.The scenarios were calculated for current and future conditions of the XXIst century, taking into account the effects of climate change.
The methodology is supported by the OSIRIS software, prototyped during the FP5 eponymous project and later distributed by CETMEF and the French basin authorities of Loire and Meuse. The methodology for the preparation of evacuation planswas applied on a pilot city of Theseus, Bordeaux on the estuary of Gironde (France), and the software used to calculate evacuation timeswas tried out on Cesenatico near the Adriatic coast (Italy).Data needed to apply them was queried either from national databases or from on-site interviews with citizens and local authorities.
1. How to elaborate submersion scenarios and optimized evacuation plans in the preparation phase, e.g. outside any event? 2. How to support the implementation and management of the evacuation on the ground?
A new decision-support system gathering all the knowledge about hazard and options produced in Theseus is currently being developed and will integrate the result of this work
In this work, a new was developed to help public authorities and managers prepare an evacuation plan in case of an upcoming storm surge event. This includes a catalog of data, the methodology which describes how to process those data to generate an action plan adapted to the actual event, and a software to simulate the process of mass-evacuation, compare different strategies and test the effects of the action levers that the authorities can pull to improve the general process.
The FP7 Theseus research project (2009–2013) aims to develop and assess innovative technologies and methodologies for coastal protection against erosion, flooding and environmental damages For extreme events, the implementation of non-structural measures as early warning systems and management practices is required to ensure the protection of population.
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