The Role of Simulation and Modeling in Disaster Management.

A rigorously constructed simulation model of the system will have control variables and performance measures that may be used in constructing the storyline of the narrative and the breakdown into subunits. The use of explicit input variables, context variables and output variables as performance measures provides a metric for evaluation missing in less rigorous approaches to tabletop design.

Tabletop exercise, simulation

Levels of maturity of table-top exercise: Problem formulation, other steps in execution, performance metrics and measurement of readiness will differ for each.Discovery: Before expectations exist for behavior, a tabletop exercise conducted more nearly like a role-playing game is very useful for exposing candidate responses and raising awareness of issues.Evaluation/Validation: After some candidate expectations for appropriate response have been exposed, tabletop exercises can be useful to evaluate proposals, compare alternatives and expose remaining gaps and issues.Training: When sufficient portions of a Disaster Response Plan have been identified, articulated and validated by such simulation, it is reasonable to train the workforce to be proficient in the elected expectation for behavior.Monitoring and Adaptation: Finally, at ultimate maturity, refined by training data and simulation runs, connected

The preparation of tabletop exercises as simulation for contexts differing in levels of maturity will look different at each step of the simulation process (please see the data collection plan)

The discipline of simulation modeling includes giving attention to details of system composition and entity relationships (mathematical and logical). The steps for building a simulator may be outlined as follows:1. Formulate the problem with the following leading questions.a. What operations and functions produce the systems output?b. What procedural elements exist in the systems operation?c. What interactions occur between functional units of the system?d. What information is available to characterize the operations, functions, and procedures of the system?2. Define the project goal, critical performance measures, modeling objectives, and system to be modeled (e.g., scope and level of detail)3. Specify the model.4. Construct the model.a. Define experimental controls (input and context variables)b. Construct the internal interactions (design variablesand alternatives)5. Run, verify and validate the simulation model.6. Use the simulator to produce and analyze solution alternatives.

What is the purpose of the tabletop exercise? Is it to prepare a response plan, evaluate a response exposed, to disseminate expectations regarding how to respond, or is it to gauge the effectiveness of a planned response to impending sequelae for events underway?

When tabletop exercises are constructed with the same formality as computer simulations, there are numerous benefits. Fewer erroneous assertions can be anticipated. Distinct aspects of the system can, once recognized by modeling, be stressed independently to evaluate the multiple facets of workforce response to disaster challenges. Performance measurements, as a formality introduced by simulation modeling, provides metrics by which readiness for disaster may be gauged and status quantified, progress monitored or alternatives compared.

The threat of pandemic disaster has motivated many collaborative exercises for the purpose of preparation and evaluation. The nature of these exercises depends upon the status of pre-existing expectations for system behavior and the aims of the exercise stakeholders. The contents of this article argue that these exercises may be developed using the same approach as simulation modeling to advantage.