Expert system CRIPS: support of situation assessment and decision making
The increased interconnection of critical infrastructures increases the complexity of dependency structures and – as consequence – the danger of cascade effects, perhaps causing area-wide blackouts in power-supply and communication networks. The network-operation is already supported by simulations providing information about the behavior of the network in real and planned situations. But blackouts nevertheless cannot always be avoided. To mitigate the danger of blackouts it is a precondition, that additional information about the current situation are available in time to support its assessment as well as the decision-making. For this purpose IABG develops an expert system CRIPS1 to support the assessment of current situations and the “strategic decision making” in emergency situations. The assumption is, that in addition to the results of simulations the results of emergency exercises, experience with real blackouts and the knowledge of experts should be immediately available in case of emergency situations to avoid developments towards blackouts.
Support of the Assessment of the Current SituationSupport of Decision Making
Successfully avoid an uncontrolled development of the events in the process towards a blackout, restricting the development of the events to the “controlled zone” by triggering measures contained in emergency plans or other decisions with regard to networks.
There is no discussion whatsoever of results, or comparisons to previous or related systems in this paper.
CRIPS is suitable to fulfill the following requirements:CRIPS completes simulationsCRIPS makes an assessment of the current situationCRIPS puts the assessments on a broad basisCRIPS supports the decision makingCRIPS helps to prevent or to mitigate blackoutsCRIPS has an interface to alert systems
Development of a Middleware Improved Technology (MIT) Add-On to mitigate the danger of blackouts in the electricity and communication networks. This expert system CRIPS ( Prevention and Planning System) has following global functionalities:Work out and show the complex dependency structures of Large Complex Critical Infrastructures (LCCIs)Show the direct and indirect effects (cascading effects) of perturbationsSupport of assessment of the current situation with regard of the dependency structureSupport of decision making with regard of the dependency structure including alerting
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