Large scale evacuation in urban areas

Endorsed by
Motivation

Shortcomings in planning and managing large scale evacuation of population in urban areas

Potential Solutions
Following solutions could be addressing this gap.

This covers two main issues:

  • Identifying the number, location and special needs of people to be evacuated, that is impacted by incident-specific characteristics like the time of day, day of the week, population density and land-use zoning. The current methods to estimate populations that are affected by an incident (population density and crowd-counting models) are used after , and not able to provide information that is operationally relevant for , even though advances in intelligent video surveillance systems are making it easier to estimate crowd size in real time.
  • Routing decision and traffic management: models to estimate congestion impacts or secondary crashes exist but rely on default general traffic assumptions (human behavior, road availability), which may differ during crisis. Incident-specific analytical tools to predict delay impacts, capacity reduction, the likelihood of secondary incidents are lacking.

References in the literature: Evacuation per seis not identified in the literature about gaps that has been analysed. However, interesting inputs are to be found regarding the ability to ascertain the number of people in a crisis area and to attend to the needs of vulnerable groups.

Rationale & related CM function(s)

A rigorous capabilities-oriented planning process, including likely scenarios, allows to identify gaps and options in meeting any requirement.
For a less likely, yet plausible crisis management scenarios, identified by rigorous foresight, one needs to develop possible courses of action and estimate respective required resources.
Evacuation and shelter, along with other core services, need to be provided within and outside the affected area.
During recovery operations, additional resources may be mobilised to upgrade temporary sheltering.
Large scale evacuation requires that critical transportation lines are opened and maintained, and their use is managed to meet priority requirements.
Temporary deployable accommodation camps and other evacuation facilities need to be established and operated within and outside the affected area, with provision of core related services.
eu Portfolio of Solutions web site has been initially developed in the scope of DRIVER+ project. Today, the service is managed by AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH., for the benefit of the European Management. PoS is endorsed and supported by the Disaster Competence Network Austria (DCNA) as well as by the STAMINA and TeamAware H2020 projects.