A general methodology for data-based rule building and its application to natural disaster management

Computational experiments with a validation process and a case study. For this, three inference methods with their own set of rules were created.

Build fuzzy rules from data with an inductive methodology. Rule aggregation and inference are then performed by means of a weighted averaging operators approach.

Predicted results about the number of casualties, number of injured, homeless, affected people and damage in US dollars by the SEDD.

Based on the discussion that current

Situation where widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses have occurred which exceeded the ability of the affected organisation, community or society to respond and recover using its own resources.

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management DSS (DSS-DM) do not meet the needs of NGOs, the authors plan to tackle following problems:DSS-DM are not designed to address the specific problem of

Actions taken during or immediately after a disaster in order to save lives, reduce health impacts, ensure public safety and meet the basic subsistence needs of the people affected.

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to any possible natural Situation where widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses have occurred which exceeded the ability of the affected organisation, community or society to respond and recover using its own resources.

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in any placeThe sophistication and infrastructure requirements of DSS-DM usually exceed those available in NGOs

No data was collected. Instead, the authors used data from the EM-DAT database (

Sudden, urgent, usually unexpected occurrence or event requiring immediate action.
Note 1 to entry: An emergency is usually a disruption or condition that can often be anticipated or prepared for, but seldom exactly foreseen.

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Events Database), merged with UN data on the HDI (Human Development Index, used for estimating a country’s vulnerability)

Describe and apply a general methodology for inductive rule building for natural

Situation where widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses have occurred which exceeded the ability of the affected organisation, community or society to respond and recover using its own resources.

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management. This application is a data-based, two-level knowledge Decision Support System (DSS) prototype which provides damage Assessment is a test, examination or similar, designed to assess a candidate’s knowledge, understanding or skills in a defined area. DRIVER+ note 1: candidate can be a person or a solution, example given: assessment of a solution in a Trial.

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for multiple Situation where widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses have occurred which exceeded the ability of the affected organisation, community or society to respond and recover using its own resources.

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scenarios to support humanitarian NGOs involved in

Actions taken during or immediately after a disaster in order to save lives, reduce health impacts, ensure public safety and meet the basic subsistence needs of the people affected.

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to natural disasters.

Although the system is a prototype, validation results suggest the suitability of the approach developed in this paperMore research  with the SEDD project is neededThe authors emphasize the

Prerequisite identified as necessary to achieve an intended outcome, implied or stated.

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to develop decision support tools specifically to address the problem of unrealistic complexity in standard existing DSS. They show that it is possible to design such a practical decision support

A device, equipment or piece of software used to carry out a particular process or procedure.

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so that it can be implemented in context such as developing countries or NGOs.

During the validation process, one method classified more than two out of three instances of the validation set correctly. The other two methods didn´t perform that well, one of them performing rather poorly.The results in the case study were also quite poor. As in the validation process, the predicted values were very far away from the real ones.

Not applied as it is a computational

Purposive investigation of a system through selective adjustment of controllable conditions and allocation of resources.

DRIVER+ Note 1: Please consider also the notes in the original definition.
DRIVER+ Note 2: In the context of DRIVER+ Trials are executed - and not experiments.

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Presenting a new version of SEDD (Expert System for

Situation where widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses have occurred which exceeded the ability of the affected organisation, community or society to respond and recover using its own resources.

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Diagnosis) which uses fuzzy logic. This SEDD is intended to be a web-available, low-cost, tailor-made

A solution is a means that contributes to a crisis management function. A solution is either one or more processes or one or more tools with related procedures.

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that should fit specific NGO constraints such as ease of use, low computational and personnel requirements, and not relying on highly sophisticated and precise data.